Hikaru & the Candidates rating spot

The next chess World Championship will be in late 2026, so there must first be a Candidates tournament to determine the Challenger. Ahead of that, Hikaru Nakamura has joined the Louisiana State Championship, where they are of course holding FIDE-rated games.

Why is this more than just a funny story? Well, one qualification spot to the Candidates will be awarded to the player with the highest average rating from August 2025 to January 2026, provided they have played at least 40 rated games over the period February 2025 – January 2026, and 15 games within 08/25 – 01/26.

Hikaru holds a comfortable 20+ point lead on all of his pursuers, noting that Fabiano Caruana has already qualified for the Candidates by winning the 2024 FIDE Circuit, so will not be relevant to the rating spot. His first four games this week have been against opponents rated 1563, 1812, 1919, and 2043, for a grand total of +2.4 rating points. It has some musing about whether a player could reach #1 in the world this way, though Hikaru will not likely push beyond the 22 more games he needs to be Candidates-eligible.

Never shy to dig at FIDE, Ian Nepomniachtchi has written on Twitter: “Year after year @fide_chess literally doesn’t care about the rating spot in the Candidates.” He references the previous cases of Alireza Firouzja and Ding Liren, who pushed late to qualify for the 2024 and 2022 Candidates, respectively, in much more questionable circumstances than playing a generic tournament. Even so, Nakamura has tongue-in-cheek called this “Road to Candidates Mickey Mouse Tournament 1”.

Round five in Louisiana is currently underway, with Nakamura’s board being streamed live on Lichess.

Photo by Stev Bonhage