Analyzing the Final 32 of the Chess World Cup
The 2025 Chess World Cup has reached its first rest day, after three rounds of play. There has been no shortage of storylines, from the exit of World Champion Gukesh Dommaraju, to the heart-racing survival of Praggnanandhaa, to the bizarre end to Wesley So’s tournament. 32 players remain, and there is quite a serious imbalance between the two halves of the bracket.
In the ‘top half’, which included Gukesh as #1 seed, the highest remaining seeds are #13 Lê Quang Liêm, #16 Javokhir Sindarov, and #17 Yu Yangyi. Sindarov and Yu are playing in round four, after which at most two top 20 players will be left among the eight players. It becomes strange to note that there is a Candidates spot promised to whichever player reaches the World Cup Final, and a fair chance at another for whoever loses the semi-final.
On the flip side, in #2 Arjun Erigaisi’s lower half, 11 of the top 16 fight on, with the highest upsets being those of #10 Hans Niemann, #18 Vladimir Fedoseev, and #19 Vidit Gujrathi.
Erigaisi and #3 Pragg still have to contend with current world #4 Vincent Keymer (seeded 6th), his revitalized mentor Peter Leko, and a long list of other strong players including Wei Yi, Maxime Vachier-Lagrave, and Richard Rapport.
Should the top seeds make it through two more rounds — the likeliest outcome, while also very unlikely — the quarterfinal matches would be:
Sindarov (16) – Harikrishna (24)
Yakubboev (28) – Liêm Lê (13)
Praggnanandhaa (3) – Keymer (6)
Wei (7) – Erigaisi (2)
There are two more interesting Candidates-relevant possibilities. Grand Swiss qualifier Matthias Blübaum remains in the tournament, and in the weaker top half. Should he finish top three in the World Cup, that starts down a new branch of qualification, the first priority of which is the fourth place finisher in the World Cup. Also, as Pragg vs. Keymer approaches, there is a fascinating dynamic regarding the FIDE Circuit.
Pragg leads the Circuit comfortably, all but assured of a Candidates spot by winning it, but if he qualifies through the World Cup instead, that opens yet another line. It may turn to the benefit of Keymer, who stands well in the Circuit as well and only has Pragg and Candidates-qualified players ahead of him there, or even to that of Nodirbek Abdusattorov, depending how things fall.
While the Pragg pairing is tough for Keymer on paper, it may in fact be good fortune, given that if he defeats Pragg he is one more win away from the Candidates, and even if he lost to Pragg, the same would be true for his opponent, which opens Keymer’s potential qualification through the Circuit, as described.
The tournament resumes November 11th, at 9:45 a.m. UTC. View the full bracket here, and follow along on Lichess.
Photo by Michal Walusza
